Three completed cycles is not a law of nature. Here is the mechanism, the backtest with its worst drops, and the strongest arguments against the whole idea.
The rule of thumb says Bitcoin moves in a rough four-year rhythm (halving, a long rise, a sharp top, a deep fall), so the stretch roughly a year after a bull-market top has been a calmer place to buy than the top itself. It held across three completed cycles. Three is a small sample, the supply effect behind it is shrinking, and the pattern may already be breaking.
Not financial advice. This article describes a backtested rule, not a prediction.
Fonte's founder put it plainly in a video: "if you are a crypto degen you probably know that you should buy Bitcoin 1 year after the previous bull run." The idea is not to call the bottom. It is to stop buying at the moment of peak excitement, wait for the long quiet stretch after a crash, and then follow a written schedule instead of a feeling.
That is the easy part to say. The hard part is everything after the purchase, which is where most people who "know the cycle" still lose money.
New bitcoin enters circulation as a reward to miners. That reward is written into the protocol and cuts in half roughly every four years, an event called the halving. It happened in 2012, 2016, 2020 and 2024.
Miners are structural sellers: they pay for electricity and hardware in ordinary currency. Halve their income and you halve a steady source of sell pressure without touching demand. On its own, that does not move the price much, because new issuance is small compared with daily trading volume. The interesting part is what has tended to follow.
For the mechanism in more depth, read The four-year crypto cycle, plainly.
Across the three completed cycles, the shape has been consistent even though the size of the moves has shrunk each time:
"Buy about a year after the top" is simply a way of placing yourself in that flat stretch instead of at the peak.
Fonte runs one engine for every member, inside a smart vault each member owns:
Your risk profile changes only how much sits in the basket during the bull: 60% for Conservative, 80% for Balanced, 100% for Aggressive.
Backtested on real BTC prices since 2011 and ETH since 2016, starting from the strategy's first entry in 2015, across three halving cycles, net of Fonte's 10% fee:
| Profile | Backtested cycle CAGR | Worst drawdown | Calmar |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | ~92% | -59% | 1.6 |
| Balanced | ~104% | -64% | 1.6 |
| Aggressive | ~116% | -69% | 1.7 |
| Holding 50/50 BTC & ETH | not shown | -88% | 0.8 |
Backtested, not a promise. The entry and exit timing is fit to only two or three past cycles, the next live entry has never been tested, and returns are lumpy: most of the gain has landed in a minority of the time. Calmar is return divided by worst drawdown, so it shows return per unit of pain rather than return alone.
Anyone building around this pattern should be able to argue against it. The strongest arguments:
So it is reasonable to build around and unreasonable to depend on.
Dollar-cost averaging (buying a fixed amount on a schedule) and cycle timing solve different problems.
If you doubt the cycle will repeat, that doubt is a point in DCA's favour.
The strategy uses no leverage, so a drawdown cannot liquidate the position. It can still be very painful.
As of September 15, 2026, Fonte vaults are in the stable phase, 100% in Aave USDC lending at a variable rate that has recently been around 3.4 to 3.6% (Fonte takes 10% of the interest earned). The next scheduled entry is around October 19, 2026. That date comes from the backtested rule. It is not a forecast that prices will rise from there.
Fonte runs this schedule inside a smart vault you own, and charges 10% of profit above your high-water mark, nothing else. If you want to be set up before the October entry, see how it works and the full backtest or open a vault with Face ID. If you would rather do it yourself, that is a fair choice: the discipline is the hard part, not the purchase.
Nobody knows. The pattern held across three completed cycles, but three is a small sample, the halving's supply effect shrinks each time, and ETFs and institutions now hold a meaningful share of Bitcoin. Fonte's own backtest notes say the pattern may not repeat and is already stretching.
It is a rule of thumb from past cycles: after a bull-market peak, Bitcoin has historically fallen 70 to 85% over a year or more. Buying roughly a year after the top aims to avoid buying the peak. It does not call the bottom, and prices can keep falling after you buy.
It is the date the backtested halving-cycle rule schedules for buying the BTC & ETH basket. The timing is fit to two or three past cycles and has never been tested live. It is not a prediction that prices will rise from that date.
Backtested, not a promise: about 92% (Conservative), 104% (Balanced) and 116% (Aggressive) cycle CAGR across three halving cycles since 2015, net of the 10% fee. Worst drawdowns were -59%, -64% and -69%, against -88% for holding 50/50 BTC and ETH.
They trade off differently. DCA does not depend on the cycle repeating but buys through the whole bear and never takes profit by itself. Cycle timing avoids buying the top and steps aside in the bear if the pattern holds, and can be wrong on both ends if it does not.
Halvings happen roughly every four years. The last ones were in 2012, 2016, 2020 and 2024.
Disclaimer: This article is general information, not financial, investment, legal or tax advice, and not an offer of securities. Backtested results are hypothetical, are not live results, and do not predict future results. Crypto assets are volatile and you can lose money, including your entire deposit.
